Morsi's Ouster

by Shweta Chopra


Mohamed Morsi became Egypt's first Islamist president on 30 June, 2012 after winning an election considered free and fair following the revolution that toppled Hosni Mubarak in 2011. Egypt held the first stage of its post-revolution parliamentary election on November 28th, 2011. Islamist parties won about two thirds of the seats, half of which went to the Muslim Brotherhood, the party Morsi represents. Morsi, who won the presidential election with 51.7 percent of the vote, was sworn in on 30 June, 2012, becoming Egypt's first civilian and Islamist ruler.

Growing Discontent

Morsi’s term in office was marred by constant political unrest and a sinking economy. There had been a growing sense of discontent since last November, when Morsi issued a controversial constitutional declaration granting him extensive powers. On 12 August, 2012, he scrapped a major constitutional document giving sweeping powers to the military and which ousted then army chief Mohamed Hussein Tantawi. A new constitutional declaration providing Morsi with extensive powers was later passed in the parliament under what the opposition called a ‘tainted vote.’ His moves to entrench Islamic laws and concentrate power in the hands of the Muslim Brotherhood also alienated liberals and secularists.

Egypt eventually plunged into a deep political crisis by end 2012, where the demonstrations of Morsi allies and opponents sometimes turned into deadly clashes. Much of the economic turmoil under Morsi, whose Muslim Brotherhood was new to power, was the result of indecisive and inexpert administration. After the 2011 revolution, successive governments had trouble attracting experienced technocrats, who feared being tainted by an unpopular ruling military council or by the Islamist ideology of the Brotherhood.

Demonstrations

By 30th June 2013, massive demonstrations were held as Egyptians respond to a call by the Tamarod (‘rebellion’) campaign and take to the streets nationwide and oust the leader on the anniversary of his turbulent first year in power.

On 1st July, the opposition gave Morsi a day to quit or face civil disobedience. Tamarod called on the army, the police and the judiciary to clearly side with the popular will as represented by the crowds.

The armed forces warned that they would intervene if the people's demands were not met within the next 48 hours. If not, they would suspend the Islamist-backed constitution, dissolve the Islamist-dominated legislature and set up an interim administration headed by the country's chief justice.

After massive demonstrations, and with Morsi refusing to quit, on 3 July, the army chief Abdel Fattah al-Sisi ousted Morsi and declared the head of the Supreme Constitutional Court, Adli Mansour, as caretaker leader until the new presidential elections.

Sisi also announced a freezing of the Islamist-drafted constitution and early presidential elections. He spoke of a new roadmap for the future which was agreed to by opposition leaders.

Military Coup

However, Morsi and his supporters speak of a ‘military coup.’ State-run al-Ahram newspaper reported that arrest warrants had been issued for 300 leaders and members of the Muslim Brotherhood. TV stations belonging to the Brotherhood went off air at the end of General Sisi's speech and state news agency Mena said managers at the movement's Misr25 channel had been arrested.

Muslim Brotherhood media spokesman Gehad el Haddad said a crowd of some 2,000 Morsi supporters had been shot at by men in civilian dress with machine guns at the main Brotherhood rally.

A notice on Morsi's Facebook page denounced the army for its ‘military coup.’ The statement asked Egyptian citizens - both civilians and military - to "abide by the constitution and the law and not to respond to this coup."

International Reaction

Fearing that Washington's most important Arab ally would descend into chaos, US officials said they are urging Morsi to take immediate steps to address opposition grievances, telling the protesters to remain peaceful and reminding the army that a coup could have consequences for the massive American military aid package it receives. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.

Reacting to the army announcement, President Obama said he hoped to see a quick restoration of a democratically elected government in Egypt. He ordered a review of US foreign aid to Egypt, which by US law must be suspended in the event an elected leader is deposed by a military coup. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon also voiced his concern, appealing for calm and restraint in Egypt.

The army has insisted it has no intention to take power. But the reported road map showed it was ready to replace Morsi and make a sweeping change in the ramshackle political structure that has evolved since Mubarak's fall in February 2011.

Economic Challenge

The ouster of President Morsi may give Egypt's economy its best chance since the 2011 revolution to escape a downward spiral of currency weakness, capital flight and crumbling state finances. The departure of Morsi will not provide any quick or easy fixes to problems such as dangerously low foreign reserves, a ballooning budget deficit and high unemployment. But many businessmen and economists hope for the appointment of a more technocratic administration that would address these problems methodically, while luring back some of the investors and money which have fled the country.

Morsi's government had been running out of cash, partly because of expensive subsidies for gasoline and other fuels which eat up over a fifth of state spending. The cash squeeze led to rolling electricity blackouts and queues of cars at filling stations, adding to the public’s anger with the Brotherhood.

If it can improve the energy supply situation, the new administration may be able to justify to the public subsidy cuts that would partially repair the state budget.Whatever the policies of the new administration, Egypt is likely to remain dangerously dependent on foreign aid to finance its external deficit for years.

Already, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates dipped into their oil revenues this week to stump up $12 billion (£8 billion) to bail out cash-strapped Egypt – a swift reward for the army's removal of President Mohamed Morsi and the stunning blow to his Muslim Brotherhood. The financial largesse from the Gulf is about both strategy and politics: the Saudis want Egypt to confront Iran and to stay close to the US. But it also reflects domestic concerns about the Brotherhood's rival brand of political Islam.